Sprint 5 — vW5 — Four Markets, Catalysts First

Same rhythm as Sprint 4, with two additions: a fourth market, the US 10-year Treasury yield, and a catalyst calendar so the week's big economic releases are part of your thinking, not an afterthought. Every other change on this page comes straight from what happened in Sprint 4.

The Sprint Goal

What Changed From Sprint 4, and Why

Prediction Challenge — Four Markets

How to read the close

How to read the 10-year yield (^TNX)

New: The Catalyst Calendar (catalysts/vW5.json)

{
  "sprint": "vW5",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-06T21:00:00+08:00",
  "events": [
    {
      "event": "Name of the release",
      "when_sgt": "2026-10-08T20:30:00+08:00",
      "consensus": "What the market expects, with the number",
      "source": "https://link-to-where-you-found-the-consensus",
      "affects": ["spx", "ndx", "gold", "tnx"],
      "if_stronger": "One line: what it does to each affected call",
      "if_weaker": "One line: what it does to each affected call"
    }
  ]
}

• Use real releases, not examples. Check an official calendar (the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve, the Bureau of Economic Analysis) and give the link in source.
• If there is no major release that week, say so in the file, with the calendar you checked. An empty week is a finding, not a missing file.
• Every call's one-sentence reason must name at least one catalyst from this file.

Your Entry: predictions/vW5.json

{
  "sprint": "vW5",
  "team": "team-N",
  "updated_at": "2026-10-07T22:00:00+08:00",
  "team_call": { "spx_close": 0.00, "ndx_close": 0.00, "gold_direction": "UP", "tnx_close": 0.00 },
  "why": {
    "spx": "One sentence, naming a catalyst.",
    "ndx": "One sentence, naming a catalyst.",
    "gold": "One sentence, naming a catalyst.",
    "tnx": "One sentence, naming a catalyst."
  },
  "leads": { "spx": "github-username (R2)", "ndx": "github-username (R3)", "gold": "github-username (R4)", "tnx": "github-username (R6)" },
  "r1_confirms": true
}

• team_call is your final call. R1 files it after R5's Human Score.
• gold_direction must read exactly "UP" or "DOWN". tnx_close is a percent with two decimals.
• R1 checks all four sentences are there, then sets r1_confirms to true. Without it, there is no entry.

Delta and Prescription: Your Sprint 4 Call

Delta and prescription work as in Sprint 4: the delta is how far off you were, whether the direction was right, and which agent pulled you furthest off. The prescription is one specific change for next sprint.

Where Every File Goes

your-team-repo/
├── catalysts/vW5.json          R2 · Tue 23:59
├── checkin/wednesday.md        R1 · Wed 12:00
├── data/
│   ├── roles.json              R1 · Tue 23:59
│   ├── github_activity.json    R6 · Tue 23:59, then daily
│   └── figjam_status.json      R1 · Tue 23:59, then daily
├── predictions/vW5.json        R1 · Wed 23:59
├── llm-synthesis/vW5.json      R6 · Wed 23:59
├── human-score/vW5.json        R5 · Wed 23:59
├── actuals/vW5.json            R4 · Sat 23:59
├── delta/vW5.json              R4 · Sat 23:59
├── prescriptions/vW5.json      R4 + R1 · Sat 23:59
├── instruments.json            R3 + R6 · Sat 23:59 (add ^TNX)
├── ui/index.html               R5 · Tue 23:59, then daily
└── evidence/                   supporting material only

Tuesday housekeeping: if any Sprint 4 file is in the wrong place, move it to its required path by Tuesday night, so your dashboard starts the week complete.

The Backlog — All Six Roles

Your Dashboard

Timeline — One Deadline Per Item

Monday 12 October

Each team's presentation runs in this order:

1. Live progress block, 4 minutes, the real thing on screen, not screenshots:
   • R5, 2 minutes: open ui/index.html, show the "X / 9 files loaded" line, and walk through the panels.
   • R6, 1 minute: GitHub: this week's commits, merges into main, and the vW5 tag.
   • R1, 1 minute: FigJam Done cards, each linked to its file on main.
2. Slides, R1 to R6, using the Sprint 5 presentation template.
3. Oral defense of all four calls. Any team member can be asked about any call.